Sunday, February 20, 2005

Defensive Stat

One of the statistics I have been looking at a lot lately has been the on court off court defensive stats at the 82 games site. Many believe figuring out who are good defenders and who are not is almost impossible. I think its difficult, but not impossible. I believe the following on court off court defensive statistic is one of the best barrometers I have found to giving a fairly accurate account as to who can play defense and who can't. What the following stat shows is who gave up more points against the other team when they were on the court as compared to their own teamates when they were off the court. I have calculated the top 100 or so players in the NBA plus anyone who recieved more then two votes in the ALL NBA defensive team voting in any of the last 3 seasons. I think its a complete list of the best players and defenders. The list is for the last 3 years starting with 3 years ago and finishing with their average for the last 3 seasons combined.

1-Tim Duncan-------///-9.0///-5.5///-8.2=-7.6
2-Theo Ratliff--------///-7.6///-6.9///-5.4=-6.6
3-Jeff Foster---------///-2.3///-8.8///-8.3=-6.5
4-Rasheed Wallace---///-6.8///-4.3///-8.0=-6.4
5-Bruce Bowen-------///-6.6///-4.5///-5.4=-5.5
6-Kevin Garnett------///-9.6///-6.5///+0.1=-5.3
7-Dirk Nowitzki-------///-5.7///-1.4///-6.0=-4.4
8-Kelvin Cato---------///-3.3///-4.8///-4.8=-4.3
9-Andre Kirilenko-----///+3.1///-2.5//-12.7=-4.0
10-Ron Artest---------///-1.6///-4.0///-5.6=-3.7
11-Antonio Davis------///-2.8///-2.0///-5.3=-3.4
12-Ben Wallace--------///-3.1///-3.0///-3.9=-3.3
13-Dikembe Mutumbo-///-0.4///-1.2///-8.3=-3.3
14-Shane Battier-------///-1.5///-1.4///-6.0=-3.0
15-Bobby Simmons----///****///-4.2///-1.7=-3.0
16-Brad Miller---------///+0.8///-5.5///-2.9=-2.5
17-Ray Allen-----------///-3.7///+1.0///-4.5=-2.4
18-Kirk Hinrich--------///****///-3.7///-0.9=-2.3
19-Larry Hughes-------///+1.5///-2.9///-5.5=-2.3
20-Reggie Miller-------///+1.2///-6.7///-1.3=-2.3
21-Roberty Horry------///-5.1///-0.8///-0.6=-2.2
22-Jason Kidd----------///+5.0///-6.1///-4.5=-1.9
23-Baron Davis---------///-3.3///-4.6///+2.3=-1.9
24-Bobby Jackson------///-2.4///-1.3///-1.5=-1.7
25-Jermaine Oneal-----///-0.5///-3.7///+1.6=-1.5
26-Tyson Chandler-----///+0.7///-3.8///-0.9=-1.3
27-Michael Finley------///-5.9///-2.2///+4.7=-1.3
28-Kenyon Martin-----///-0.6///-5.2///+2.1=-1.2
29-Eddie Jones---------///-1.3///-0.3///-2.0=-1.2
30-Shaq Oneal---------///+0.8///-3.9///-0.6=-1.2
31-Kobe Bryant--------///-0.6///+0.7///-3.3=-1.1
32-Elton Brand---------///-0.9///+3.9///-4.7=-0.8
33-Doug Christie-------///+1.0///+1.9///-5.2=-0.8
34-Andre Igoudala-----///****///****///-0.8=-0.8
35-Chris Bosh----------///****///+3.4///-4.7=-0.7
36-Josh Howard--------///****///+1.2///-2.3=-0.6
37-Emeka Okafor-------///****///****///-0.6=-0.6
38-Brian Grant----------///+2.6///-0.3///-4.1=-0.6
39-Vince Carter---------///-2.0///+1.8///-1.7=-0.6
40-Nazr Mohammed----///+1.5///-0.7///-2.6=-0.6
41-Manu Ginobili--------///+2.5///+3.4///-7.5=-0.5
42-Rchard Jefferson-----///+0.8///-0.9///-1.0=-0.4
43-Paul Pierce-----------///-0.4///-0.1///-0.8=-0.4
44-Darrell Armstrong---///+2.5///-1.8///-2.0=-0.4
45-Q Richardson--------///-2.5///+0.8///+0.5=-0.4
46-Steve Francis--------///+0.9///-1.9///+0.2=-0.3
47-Eric Snow------------///-1.1///-0.6///+0.7=-0.3
48-Hydayet Turkoglu---///+1.1///-2.5///+2.2=-0.3
49-Jamal MaGloire------///+1.0///+1.3///-2.6=-0.1
50-Raef Lafrentz--------///+3.0///-4.8///+1.6=-0.1
51-Zyd Ilgauskas--------///-4.0///+4.0///-0.1=-0.0
52-Jamal Tinsley--------///+4.6///-5.3///+0.7=-0.0
53-Tony Parker---------///-2.5///+4.1///-1.2=+0.1
54-Latrell Sprewell------///+4.5///-0.8///-3.3=+0.1
55-Tayshawn Prince----///+4.3///+0.9///-4.6=+0.2
56-Keith Van Horn------///+0.2///+0.8///-0.1=+0.3
57-Rueben Patterson----///+1.2///-1.3///+1.2=+0.4
58-Alonzo Morning------///****///+2.9///-2.1=+0.4
59-Mehmet Okur--------///-0.4///-1.7///+3.2=+0.4
60-Grant Hill------------///+1.7///****///-0.8=+0.5
61-Chauncey Billups-----///+3.5///+1.0///-2.7=+0.6
62-Dwight Howard------///****///****///+0.7=+0.7
63-Antawn Jamison-----///+4.8///+0.4///-2.4=+0.9
64-Jason Terry----------///+0.1///+4.1///-1.6=+0.9
65-James Posey----------///+1.2///-0.1///+1.9=+1.0
66-PJ Brown--------------///+5.7///-4.5///+2.7=+1.3
67-Kurt Thomas----------///-0.9///+2.1///+2.9=+1.4
68-Rip Hamilton----------///+3.3///+3.7///-2.7=+1.4
69-Carlos Boozer----------///+6.6///-0.6///-1.9=+1.4
70-Yao Ming--------------///+2.6///-1.6///+3.4=+1.5
71-Troy Murphy----------///+1.4///-0.1///+3.8=+1.7
72-Dewayne Wade--------///****///-1.4///+4.9=+1.8
73-Al Harrington----------///-2.5///+9.2///-1.4=+1.8
74-Lebron James---------///****///+5.2///-1.4=+1.9
75-Wally Z----------------///+3.1///-3.9///+6.4=+1.9
76-Cutino Mobley---------///+1.4///+1.9///+3.5=+2.3
77-Zach Randolph---------///+5.8///+2.0///-2.3=+2.3
78-Sam Cassell------------///+10.0//-1.7///-0.9=+2.5
79-Shawn Marion---------///+5.2///+1.2///+1.5=+2.6
80-Gilbert Arenas---------///+5.8///+4.2///-1.9=+2.7
81-Allen Iverson----------///+5.1///+0.9///+2.5=+2.8
82-Chris Webber----------///+3.6///-0.4///+5.3=+2.8
83-Mike Miller------------///+3.2///+3.9///+1.3=+2.8
84-Joe Johnson------------///+2.3///+1.4///+4.7=+2.8
85-Drew Gooden----------///+0.7///+6.6///+1.0=+2.8
86-Lamar Odom-----------///+4.6///+2.1///+2.2=+3.0
87-Antonio Daniels---------///+2.7///+2.3///+4.4=+3.1
88-Amare Stoudemire-----///+3.5///+2.2///+4.0=+3.2
89-Mike Bibby-------------///+5.7///+5.8///-1.9=+3.2
90-Steve Nash------------///+4.3///+3.1///+2.3=+3.2
91-Marcus Camby---------///+6.3///+1.4///+2.4=+3.4
92-Peja Stojacovic---------///+7.1///+2.5///+0.6=+3.4
93-Stephon Marbury------///+7.8///+1.9///+0.9=+3.5
94-Cliff Robinson----------///+3.1///+2.0///+5.6=+3.6
95-Desmond Mason--------///+5.4///-2.6///+8.1=+3.6
96-Jason Richardson-------///+7.3///-1.1///+5.0=+3.7
97-Carmelo Anthony------///****///+5.9///+1.4=+3.7
98-Andre Miller-----------///+8.2///+0.5///+2.8=+3.8
99-Gary Payton-----------///+5.2///+1.8///+4.7=+3.9
100-Rashard Lewis--------///+6.4///+2.1///+3.2=+3.9
101-Tracy McGrady-------///+6.4///+2.4///+3.4=+4.1
102-Matt Harpring--------///+3.1///+1.4///+8.5=+4.3
103-Corey Maggette-------///+6.2///+1.2///+5.7=+4.4
104-Jeff McCinnis----------///+8.4///+2.2///+4.7=+5.1
105-Michael Redd----------///+3.3///+9.1///+5.6=+6.0
106-Antoine Walker--------///+0.6///+4.6//+13.8=+6.3
107-Pau Gasol--------------///+10.8//+8.2///-0.4=+6.5

I am not saying this statistic is perfect or totally accurate. One common sense flaw is a team that has great starting defenders and a bench of bad defenders would skew any player on the team depending on whether they are a starter or backup. A great example of this is Manu Ginobili with the Spurs. He came off the bench his first two seasons so didn't play that much with Duncan or Bowen and his numbers were a weak +2.5 and +3.4. This year he starts with those two and he gets a -7.5. So who a player plays with can effect this stat. However, most players play with their teamates quite a bit eventually and 3 seasons is ussually going to have every player play with tons of different players and lineups so it will even out to some degree.

The 4 Mav players are interesting. Of course its great to see Dirk ranked in the top 10 of this stat. Eventually the media will have to start to accept the gathering evidence. Some may take issue with Fin ranked 27th. However, if you look closer you will see that Fin has a bad +- this season. Most of his points were gained 3 seasons ago. Remember, this stat is saying who were good for the last 3 seasons combined. I think Fins numbers show the accuracy of this stat more then anything. Josh is in nice shape at 36 and improving. And Jason Terry is a poor but not horrible 64th. A little below average.

Of the top 38 players on the list, I would call only Brad Miller, Ray Allen, Reggie Miller, Michael Finley, and Chris Bosh less then "very good" defenders. To have 33 of the top 38 players be "very good" or better defenders is very impressive IMO. And I would have called Fin very good 3 seasons ago. Reggie Millers numbers are skewed by his season two years ago when he was injured and played very little, so his -6.7 that season is probably very misleading. As for Brad Miller, Ray Allen, and Chris Bosh, maybe they are a little better then I thought.

As for those ranked in the bottom 25, only Gary Payton, Cliff Robinson, and Marcus Camby I would have called even "good" defenders. And Payton and Robinson are getting extremely old. Maybe they are more cooked then we think. So the only player that really surprised me was Camby. And his numbers are skewed by his +6.3 3 seasons ago when he played very little and so that stat and his ranking might be misleading.

Let me simply ask why Dirk is ranked so high in this stat? Where is the flaw in his ranking? I can't find any. He ussually starts with some real lousy defenders, which should hurt his stat. This year he is starting with Damp and Howard and occasionally he has started with Bradley in the past. However, he hasn't had much help starting with him the last 3 seasons. Bradley, Najera, Bell, and Josh Howard mostly came off the bench. And shouldn't the Mav tempo be higher when Dirk is on the court? So the other team should score more because of that shouldn't they?

All I know is when Duncan and Ratliff are ranked 1-2 and Gasol and Walker are dead last, I think its probably a solid defensive rating system. And Dirk is ranked 7th for the last 3 seasons combined.

94 Comments:

At February 21, 2005 at 10:51 AM, Blogger Bret LaGree said...

Why do you think no point guards appear on the list until 18? And that's Hinrich who only has a year-and-a-half's worth of data and has spent much of this season guarding twos. Is point guard the most difficult position to defend or is it the position with the most normalized distribution of talent?

Probably a combination, I'd guess. Nobody gets a point guard job just because they're small (unlike bigs) which eliminates some outliers.

 
At February 21, 2005 at 6:06 PM, Anonymous James said...

Nice post Kevin,
There are a number of problems with the +/- stats and I think that you are aware of many of them. I'll just mention one. They are effected by the style (and effectiveness) of the team. One point is less significant to a high paced team than to a low pace team. This is true both between teams and within subunits of the same team.
A rather simple way to deal with this is to standardize the defensive numbers on and off court by the # of points scored by both teams on and off court respectively. This would compensate to some extent for diffrences in pace.

 
At February 22, 2005 at 12:17 AM, Blogger Keven said...

Thanks James. I agree that tempo is almost always a factor to take into account in stats. Its less of a factor here then in many other stats because the +- is in comparrison to their own team mates. And tempo within teams tend to be very similar. However, it will come into play. A great example would be the Phoenix Suns starters vs. their bench players. I bet tempo is hurting the Suns starters quite a bit in this stat this year. That may be why Stoudemire[+4.0] has such poor numbers this year. All 5 Phoenix starters have a + this season. Hmmmm. And as you said, the best way to adjust for tempo is to adjust the defensive numbers to the offense being scored overall. Unfortunately, I don't have access to those kinds of numbers and they would be very complex. I guess the best way is to just take that concept into account when judging the numbers. So keep that in mind when looking at Phoenix starters, along with guys that push tempo like Iverson, Lebron and the like on the positive side. And look more negatively with players that inevitably cause sloggy play like Mutumbo and the like.

Great question Brett. I think its probably a 4 part answer. The first is your point about a dearth of quality backup big men. How many of those guys are just around to pick up the check? Notice that 11 of the top 13 are PF-C's. The only two non bigs are mega defenders[Bowen-Artest]. So I totally agree with your point. I think the second reason is the lack of a superstar defender at PG. Who would you say you would have expected in the top 5? Top 10? Maybe Kidd. That would have been it. Thirdly, is my belief that great defensive bigs dominate the defensive side of the ball more then great littles. You want to stop an opposing defense from scoring? Do you take Ben Wallace on your team or Jason Kidd? And finally, it may be somewhat of a stat annomaly. Maybe somewhat of a coincidence in other words. If we look at just the last two seasons Kidd would be ranked about 7th.

Thanks for commenting.

 
At February 22, 2005 at 1:02 AM, Blogger Keven said...

Thanks James. I agree that tempo is almost always a factor to take into account in stats. Its less of a factor here then in many other stats because the +- is in comparrison to their own team mates. And tempo within teams tend to be very similar. However, it will come into play. A great example would be the Phoenix Suns starters vs. their bench players. I bet tempo is hurting the Suns starters quite a bit in this stat this year. That may be why Stoudemire[+4.0] has such poor numbers this year. All 5 Phoenix starters have a + this season. Hmmmm. And as you said, the best way to adjust for tempo is to adjust the defensive numbers to the offense being scored overall. Unfortunately, I don't have access to those kinds of numbers and they would be very complex. I guess the best way is to just take that concept into account when judging the numbers. So keep that in mind when looking at Phoenix starters, along with guys that push tempo like Iverson, Lebron and the like on the positive side. And look more negatively with players that inevitably cause sloggy play like Mutumbo and the like.

Great question Brett. I think its probably a 4 part answer. The first is your point about a dearth of quality backup big men. How many of those guys are just around to pick up the check? Notice that 11 of the top 13 are PF-C's. The only two non bigs are mega defenders[Bowen-Artest]. So I totally agree with your point. I think the second reason is the lack of a superstar defender at PG. Who would you say you would have expected in the top 5? Top 10? Maybe Kidd. That would have been it. Thirdly, is my belief that great defensive bigs dominate the defensive side of the ball more then great littles. You want to stop an opposing defense from scoring? Do you take Ben Wallace on your team or Jason Kidd? And finally, it may be somewhat of a stat annomaly. Maybe somewhat of a coincidence in other words. If we look at just the last two seasons Kidd would be ranked about 7th.

Thanks for commenting.

 
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